Following the trendline not the headline

Evidence led violence reduction 

The key to successfully reducing violence in our communities lies in effective partner data sharing and collaboration. Here, we hear from Professor Stan Gilmour, a former police officer with more than three decades of experience. Throughout his career, he has seen the evolution of policing from a reactive approach to a more proactive and evidence-based one. In his previous role as the head of the Thames Valley Violence Reduction Unit which rebranded in 2024 as the Violence Prevention Partnership¹, Stan led a unique and holistic approach to violence reduction from a public health perspective.

The Thames Valley Violence Prevention Partnership

First established in 2019, the Violence Prevention Partnership is a Home Office funded programme designed to provide leadership in preventing and reducing serious violence across the Thames Valley region. The partnership takes a public health approach to policing - it approaches the issue of violence not as isolated incidents or a law enforcement problem but as a preventable consequence of a range of adverse social and community factors and experiences. The partnership works with local authorities, health, education, policing, third sector organisations, members of the community and many more to contribute to reducing violence, gathering data from as wide a range of partners as possible. 

Throughout his career, Stan had always believed in following the trend line, not the headline. Getting good evidence to make good decisions was essential for success. The partnership took a data-driven approach to their work, analysing trends and patterns in crime rates to develop effective interventions. They avoided making assumptions and instead relied on solid evidence to guide their decision-making.

Thanks to Stan’s expertise in computing and data analysis, the Violence Prevention Partnership was able to develop a more holistic approach to policing, one that focused on prevention and support for victims, as well as traditional policing tactics.

The use of data in policing

One of the unique aspects of the partnership is its use of data. Stan and his team have produced an end-to-end solution for collaborating, which involves a cloud data solution that sifts, sorts, and links data from a wide range of partners. The ownership of the data is retained by the relevant data partners and overseen by an ethics committee to ensure sufficient challenge and good governance.

According to Stan, “You can’t arrest your way out of the problem, so it’s not simply police focused. We believe you need to do more than just enforce your way around the issue.” The partnership looks at both the risk and protective factors that contribute towards people being drawn into violence. It seeks to identify the risks that propel people into violence and to understand the cohorts `at risk of falling into violence. In turn, this information is used to inform and enhance protective factors, such as education, sports and activity, wellbeing, mental health support, and more.

The data-driven approach enables the partnership to enhance and augment hotspot policing. According to Stan, “We know that if you police certain areas in certain ways at certain times, you can reduce crimes or the likelihood of crimes.” The partnership draws on the science of hotspot policing, particularly from the USA, and uses targeted data to identify where police need to be and when, enabling them to reduce risk factors and build protective ones.²

Supporting the Serious Violence Strategy with science and technology 

The Violence Prevention Partnership is working towards supporting the 2018 Serious Violence Strategy³, which lists risk factors for serious violence, such as poverty, parents involved in crime, substance misuse, or a parent in prison. In 2021, the partnership designed and launched Operation Paramount, a groundbreaking project offering rapid access to support for children and families with a parent in prison, which is an adverse childhood experience and makes it more likely a child will end up in prison.⁴

As a key initiative of the project, Stan and his team established an innovative new data process to identify when a parent goes into prison and may need support, allowing a prompt offer of help for the whole family by the charity, Children Heard and Seen.⁵ By analysing data from Her Majesty’s Prison and Probation Service for the first time, Operation Paramount has created a new means of not only tracking a prisoner’s entry, movement through and eventual release from prison but also recognition of families who might benefit from additional support, with the aim of tackling risk factors of young people being drawn into future crime.

Thanks to Operation Paramount which collates potential referrals from across Thames Valley’s three counties, between 200-300 children in the region are identified every year to receive vital support. The project’s remarkable success has led to its adoption by police forces nationwide, enabling the charity Children Heard and Seen to expand their support to an increasing number of children and adolescents impacted by parental imprisonment.

Using data in the way that Stan has can be applied to a range of different issues and crime types beyond violence reduction such as drug related offences, disorder offences and property crime.⁷ His work is a great example of what can be accomplished when multi-agency collaboration is coupled with science and technology led approaches.